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<title>Global Warming Reports</title>
<link>http://www.pennenvironment.org/reports/global-warming/global-warming-reports</link>
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<title>Rising to the Challenge: Six Steps to Cut Global Warming Pollution in the United States</title>
<link>http://www.pennenvironment.org/reports/global-warming/global-warming-reports/rising-to-the-challenge-six-steps-to-cut-global-warming-pollution-in-the-united-states</link>
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<pubDate>Sat, 10 Mar 2007 23:05:17 -0600</pubDate>
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<title>The Carbon Boom: National and State Trends in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Since 1960</title>
<link>http://www.pennenvironment.org/reports/global-warming/global-warming-reports/the-carbon-boom-national-and-state-trends-in-carbon-dioxide-emissions-since-1960</link>
<description>The</description>
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<pubDate>Sat, 10 Mar 2007 23:05:17 -0600</pubDate>
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<title>Carbon Boom: State and National Trends in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Since 1990</title>
<link>http://www.pennenvironment.org/reports/global-warming/global-warming-reports/carbon-boom-state-and-national-trends-in-carbon-dioxide-emissions-since-1990</link>
<description>The early effects of global warming are already evident across the United States and worldwide. The past nine years have all been among the 25 warmest for the contiguous United States, a streak unprecedented in the historical record. If emissions are left unchecked, temperatures will continue to rise, and the effects of global warming will become more severe. This report examines trends in U.S. global warming pollution nationally and by state and concludes that the failure to limit emissions nationwide has allowed global warming pollution to grow out of control. In February 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a United Nations body charged with assessing the scientific record on global warming, found that the evidence of global warming is&#x26;ldquo;unequivocal&#x26;rdquo; and concluded, with more than 90 percent certainty, that human activities are responsible for most of the observed rise in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century. If current trends in emissions continue, the IPCC projects that temperatures will increase anywhere from an additional 1.1&#x26;deg; to 6.4&#x26;deg;C (2&#x26;deg; to 11.5&#x26;deg;F). The consequences of this increase in global temperatures will vary from place to place but will include sea level rise, heat waves, drought, increasingly intense tropical storms, loss of plant and animal species, decreased crop yields, decreased water availability, and the spread of infectious diseases. The United States is the largest worldwide contributor to global warming, releasing almost a quarter of the world&#x26;rsquo;s carbon dioxide, the primary global warming pollutant. Power plants, cars, and light trucks are the largest U.S. sources of carbon dioxide. Existing technology could substantially educe global warming pollution by making power plants and factories more efficient, making cars go farther on a gallon of gasoline, and shifting the country to clean, renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power. Unfortunately, the U.S. government so far has rejected mandatory limits on global warming pollution, allowing carbon dioxide emissions to rise unabated. Using the most recent state fossil fuel consumption data from the Department of Energy, this report examines trends in carbon dioxide emissions nationally and by state for the 15 years spanning 1990 to 2004. Our major findings include the following: Carbon dioxide pollution is on the rise. &#x26;bull; Carbon dioxide pollution from fossil fuel consumption is on the rise in the United States, increasing by 18 percent between 1990 and 2004. &#x26;bull; Electric power plants and the transportation sector&#x26;mdash;particularly cars and light trucks&#x26;mdash;drove the increase in emissions nationwide. Between 1990 and 2004, U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from the electric power sector jumped by 28 percent and from the transportation sector by almost a quarter (23 percent). &#x26;bull; Carbon dioxide emissions increased the most in the Southeast, Great Lakes/Midwest, and Gulf South regions over the 15 year period. The states experiencing the largest absolute increases in carbon dioxide emissions between 1990 and 2004 are Texas, Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, and Georgia. The electric power sector was the primary factor driving the increase in U.S. carbon dioxide emissions between 1990 and 2004. &#x26;bull; The electric power sector accounted for more than half (55 percent) of the U.S. emissions increase. Rising electricity demand from residential, commercial and industrial consumers spurred this rapid increase in carbon dioxide emissions from the electric power sector. &#x26;bull; Coal-fired power plants accounted for most of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions from the electric power sector. Between 1990 and 2004, U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants increased by a quarter, accounting for three-fourths of the emissions increase in the electric power sector and 42 percent of the nation&#x26;rsquo;s overall increase in carbon dioxide emissions. &#x26;bull; The states that experienced the largest absolute increases in carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants between 1990 and 2004 are Illinois, Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, and Indiana. &#x26;bull; Between 1990 and 2004, U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from natural gas consumption in the electric power sector increased by more than two thirds (almost 70 percent), accounting for 13 percent of the nation&#x26;rsquo;s overall increase in carbon dioxide emissions. &#x26;bull; The states that experienced the largest absolute increases in carbon dioxide emissions from natural gas-fired power plants between 1990 and 2004 are Florida, Texas, Arizona, California, and Nevada. The transportation sector also played a major role in driving up U.S. carbon dioxide emissions between 1990 and 2004. &#x26;bull; The transportation sector accounted for 40 percent of the nation&#x26;rsquo;s overall increase in carbon dioxide emissions during this time period. &#x26;bull; Cars and light trucks were responsible for most of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions from the transportation sector. Between 1990 and 2004, carbon dioxide emissions from motor gasoline consumption increased by almost a quarter (22 percent), accounting for more than half of the emissions increase in the transportation sector. &#x26;bull; The states with the largest absolute increases in carbon dioxide emissions from motor gasoline consumption between 1990 and 2004 include Texas, Florida, California, Georgia, and Arizona. The longer we wait to reduce global warming pollution, the harder the task will be in the future. Many U.S. states have started taking important steps to cut global warming pollution within their borders, but the global warming problem also demands a national solution. Key components of an action plan to cut global warming pollution include: &#x26;bull; Establishing mandatory, science-based limits on global warming pollution that reduce emissions from today&#x26;rsquo;s levels by the end of the decade, by at least 15-20 percent by 2020, and by at least 80 percent by 2050. &#x26;bull; Reducing our dependence on fossil fuels by making our homes and businesses more energy efficient, making our cars and SUVs go farther on a gallon of gasoline, and generating more electricity from renewable energy sources.</description>
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<pubDate>Thu, 12 Apr 2007 08:39:35 -0500</pubDate>
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<title>Feeling The Heat: Global Warming and Rising Temperatures</title>
<link>http://www.pennenvironment.org/reports/global-warming/global-warming-reports/feeling-the-heat-global-warming-and-rising-temperatures</link>
<description>In 2006, Americans experienced a summer heat wave that broke records from coast to coast and killed almost 200 people. The year ended and 2007 began with the warmest winter on record globally. This unseasonably warm weather is part of a long-term trend toward rising temperatures and extreme weather events resulting from global warming. Global average surface temperatures have increased by more than 1.4&#x26;deg;F since the second half of the 19th century. Earlier this year, the United Nations&#x26;rsquo; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the evidence of global warming is &#x26;ldquo;unequivocal&#x26;rdquo; and that human activities are responsible for most of the rise in temperatures. o examine recent temperature patterns in the United States, we compared temperature data for the years 2000-2006 from 255 weather stations located in all 50 states and Washington, DC with temperatures averaged over the 30 years spanning 1971-2000. Overall, we found that temperatures were above the 30-year average across the country, indicating pervasive warming. SUMMER 2006: RECORD-BREAKING HEAT A long-lasting summer heat wave hit most of the country in 2006, making it the second warmest summer on record for the contiguous United States. Heat waves have serious implications for human health, causing heat stroke, heat exhaustion, and even death. Our analysis of climate data for June-August 2006 showed: &#x26;bull; During the summer of 2006, the average temperature was at least 0.5&#x26;deg;F above the 30-year average at 82% of the locations studied. In Rapid City, South Dakota and Helena, Montana, average summertime temperatures were 5&#x26;deg;F above normal. &#x26;bull; The average maximum temperature &#x26;mdash; the peak temperature on any given day &#x26;mdash; was at least 0.5&#x26;deg;F above the 30-year average at two-thirds (67%) of the locations studied. The Great Plains and Mountain West suffered some of the most above-normal summer temperatures in 2006. &#x26;bull; The summer heat wave produced a high number of dangerously hot days at or above 90&#x26;deg;F across the country. Almost three-fourths (71%) of the locations examined recorded more frequent (compared with the historical average) days with peak temperatures of at least 90&#x26;deg;F. Tupelo, Mississippi experienced 40 more 90&#x26;deg;F or warmer days than normal in 2006. &#x26;bull; The 2006 summer heat wave was marked by above-average minimum temperatures &#x26;mdash; the lowest temperatures recorded on a given day, usually at night. The average minimum temperature was at least 0.5&#x26;deg;F above the 30-year average at 81% of the locations studied and 9.7&#x26;deg;F above normal in Reno, Nevada, the highest in the country. Warmer nighttime temperatures exacerbate the public health effects of heat waves, since people need cooler nighttime temperatures to recover from excessive heat exposure during the day. In April 2007, the IPCC warned that North American cities that currently experience heat waves are expected to face &#x26;ldquo;an increased number, intensity, and duration of heat waves,&#x26;rdquo; threatening public health, particularly that of elderly Americans and infants. 2006: SECOND WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD With a scorching summer and mild start to winter, the 2006 average temperature for the contiguous United States was the second warmest on record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Every state in the Lower 48 experienced above normal temperatures in 2006. Our analysis of 2006 climate data showed: &#x26;bull; In 2006, the average temperature was at least 0.5&#x26;deg;F above the 30-year average at 87% of the locations examined. The Upper Midwest and Mountain West in particular experienced warmer-than normal average temperatures in 2006.  The average maximum temperature was at least 0.5&#x26;deg;F above the 30-year average at 81% of the stations examined. Warmerthan- average days hit Texas and the Great Plains the hardest in 2006, with average peak temperatures soaring more than 5&#x26;deg;F above normal in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. &#x26;bull; The average minimum temperature was at least 0.5&#x26;deg;F above the 30-year average at 80% of the stations examined. Minimum temperatures were particularly mild in the Upper Midwest, where temperatures soared almost 5&#x26;deg;F above the 30-year average in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Duluth, and Rochester, Minnesota.  2000-2006: TEMPERATURES RISING The above-average temperatures of 2006 are part of a broader warming trend since 2000. Our analysis of climate data for 2000-2006 showed: &#x26;bull; Between 2000 and 2006, the average temperature was at least 0.5&#x26;deg;F above the 30-year average at 87% of the locations studied. Average temperatures in Alaska were the most anomalous, with Talkeetna near Denali National Park averaging more than 4&#x26;deg;F above the 30-year average. &#x26;bull; The average maximum temperature was at least 0.5&#x26;deg;F above the 30-year average at more than two-thirds (68%) of the locations studied. Average maximum temperatures in Pueblo and Alamosa, Colorado were 2.6&#x26;deg;F above normal. &#x26;bull; Overall, temperatures are not dropping at night as much now as they did in the past. Between 2000 and 2006, the average minimum temperature was at least 0.5&#x26;deg;F above the 30-year average at 80% of the locations studied. Albuquerque, New Mexico and Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan reported average minimum temperatures of more than 3&#x26;deg;F above normal. Even though the IPCC identified significant risks with continued global warming, the panel also concluded that &#x26;ldquo;many impacts can be avoided, reduced, or delayed&#x26;rdquo; by quickly and significantly reducing global warming pollution. To protect future generations, the United States should: Cap global warming emissions. The United States should establish mandatory, sciencebased limits on carbon dioxide and other global warming pollutants that reduce total emissions from today&#x26;rsquo;s levels by the end of the decade, by at least 15-20% by 2020, and by at least 80% by 2050. Adopt complementary clean energy policies to reduce global warming emissions. To achieve these reductions, the United States should adopt strong policies and financial incentives to improve energy efficiency and increase the use of clean, renewable energy. </description>
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<pubDate>Tue, 24 Jul 2007 10:02:35 -0500</pubDate>
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<title>State Clean Cars Programs: An Effective Way to Slash Global Warming Pollution</title>
<link>http://www.pennenvironment.org/reports/global-warming/global-warming-reports/state-clean-cars-programs-an-effective-way-to-slash-global-warming-pollution</link>
<description>Shrinking glaciers, rising global temperatures, increasingly severe storms, and alarming</description>
<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.pennenvironment.org/reports/global-warming/global-warming-reports/state-clean-cars-programs-an-effective-way-to-slash-global-warming-pollution</guid>
<pubDate>Sat, 10 Mar 2007 23:05:17 -0600</pubDate>
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<title>The Costs Of Inaction: Delaying Action On Global Warming Costs Consumers And The Environment</title>
<link>http://www.pennenvironment.org/reports/global-warming/global-warming-reports/the-costs-of-inaction-delaying-action-on-global-warming-costs-consumers-and-the-environment</link>
<description>The majority of scientists are certain that the climate </description>
<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.pennenvironment.org/reports/global-warming/global-warming-reports/the-costs-of-inaction-delaying-action-on-global-warming-costs-consumers-and-the-environment</guid>
<pubDate>Sat, 10 Mar 2007 23:05:17 -0600</pubDate>
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<title>Feeling the Heat: Global Warming and Rising Temperatures in the United States</title>
<link>http://www.pennenvironment.org/reports/global-warming/global-warming-reports/feeling-the-heat-global-warming-and-rising-temperatures-in-the-united-states2</link>
<description>2007: 10th Warmest Year on Record for the United States</description>
<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.pennenvironment.org/reports/global-warming/global-warming-reports/feeling-the-heat-global-warming-and-rising-temperatures-in-the-united-states2</guid>
<pubDate>Wed, 15 Oct 2008 08:33:11 -0500</pubDate>
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<title>Global Warming Solutions that Work: Cutting-Edge Efforts to Curb Global Warming Pollution and the Lessons they Hold for America</title>
<link>http://www.pennenvironment.org/reports/global-warming/global-warming-reports/global-warming-solutions-that-work-cutting-edge-efforts-to-curb-global-warming-pollution-and-the-lessons-they-hold-for-america</link>
<description>Executive Summary Global warming is the defining challenge of our time. The latest climate science tells us that the United States must reduce its emissions of global warming pollutants quickly and dramatically if we hope to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of global warming. The rest of the world must take strong action as well. For the United States to make the emission reductions science tells us will be necessary&#x26;mdash;cutting emissions by at least 15-20 percent by 2020 and by 80 percent by 2050&#x26;mdash;will require major changes in many areas of America&#x26;rsquo;s economy, from the increased use of clean, renewable energy to dramatic improvements in the efficiency with which we use energy in our homes, businesses and vehicles. But solutions exist today that can get us much of the way there. And communities across the country&#x26;mdash;and around the globe&#x26;mdash;are making those solutions a reality. This report details more than 20 examples of cutting-edge policies and practices that communities, states and countries are using to reduce global warming pollution. These examples show that while actions to reduce global warming pollution require commitment and creativity, they also bring with them other benefits&#x26;mdash;reduced dependence on fossil fuels, cleaner air and healthier communities, economic growth and new jobs. America should learn from these initiatives by adopting public policy &#x26;ldquo;best practices&#x26;rdquo; that can achieve similar benefits nationwide. The United States&#x26;mdash;as well as individual states&#x26;mdash;should foster further innovation by adopting mandatory caps on global warming pollution, coupled with policies that will promote the transition to a cleaner, more efficient energy system. Cities and states across America are achieving impressive results in the fight against global warming. &#x26;bull; Texas has added more than 4,000 megawatts of wind power generating capacity in the last decade. Once a marginal source of electricity in the state, wind power now produces about 3 percent of Texas&#x26;rsquo; electricity, enough to avoid about 8 million metric tons of global warming pollution per year. &#x26;bull; New Jersey doubled its solar power generating capacity within just two years through aggressive public policies that promote solar panels on rooftops in the Garden State. &#x26;bull; California uses 20 percent less energy per capita than it did in 1973, thanks to strong energy efficiency policies for buildings and appliances. &#x26;bull; Wisconsin avoids about 200,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide pollution per year through its innovative programs to promote energy efficiency in industry&#x26;mdash;programs that also help save businesses money and keep jobs within the state. &#x26;bull; Portland, Oregon, has doubled the number of bicyclists on city streets in just six years through investments in bicycle infrastructure and bikefriendly transportation policies. The percentage of people who bike to work in Portland is now eight times the national average. &#x26;bull; In the Rosslyn and Ballston neighborhoods of Arlington County, Virginia, about 40 percent of residents take transit to work and about 10 percent walk, thanks to investments in transit service to Washington, D.C. and smart land-use planning that has created vibrant, compact, mixed-use communities around transit stops. &#x26;bull; Southeastern Pennsylvania saw a 20 percent increase in the number of riders on energy efficient trains linking Harrisburg and Philadelphia following investments that increased travel speeds along the line. A similar 20 percent ridership jump occurred recently on the Northeast&#x26;rsquo;s Acela high-speed train line. Other nations have also made significant progress, with lessons for the United States. &#x26;bull; Germany recycles 60 percent of its municipal waste (compared to 32 percent in the United States) and has kept its garbage output steady for nearly two decades thanks to policies that put the responsibility for recycling waste on product manufacturers and not individual consumers and taxpayers. &#x26;bull; In Israel, more than 90 percent of homes use solar water heaters, which dramatically reduce the need for natural gas or electricity for water heating. Israel requires that all new homes come equipped with solar water heaters. &#x26;bull; Copenhagen, Denmark, has revitalized its downtown by giving pedestrians and bicycles preference over cars in large parts of its city center. Walking and cycling now account for more than 40 percent of all trips made in Danish urban areas. &#x26;bull; Spain has sparked the creation of new renewable energy industries through aggressive clean energy policies. Spain now ranks third in the world for installed wind power capacity and is the world&#x26;rsquo;s fourth leading market for solar photovoltaics. Spanish companies are increasingly taking a leading role in renewable energy development in the United States and elsewhere. Communities and states across the country are laying the groundwork for even larger changes in the years ahead. &#x26;bull; Concentrating solar power, which uses heat from the sun to generate electricity, has the potential to serve a large share of America&#x26;rsquo;s electricity needs. Southwestern states have enacted policies that are contributing to a solar power boom that could result in more than 4,000 megawatts of solar thermal power coming on line in the next several years. &#x26;bull; Plug-in hybrid vehicles can dramatically reduce carbon dioxide pollution from vehicles while weaning America from its dependence on oil. Austin, Texas, citizens and public officials are pushing for the development of plugin hybrid vehicles and enlisting people from around the country in the effort. &#x26;bull; &#x26;ldquo;Green&#x26;rdquo; buildings and zero-energy homes could revolutionize America&#x26;rsquo;s building stock by providing pleasant, comfortable spaces with dramatically lower impact on the global climate. Pittsburgh and other cities are driving innovations in green building, while engineers, home builders and researchers are building the first wave of &#x26;ldquo;zero energy homes&#x26;rdquo; across the country. &#x26;bull; Addressing global warming will require efforts from people of all walks of life. Communities like Greensburg, Kansas&#x26;mdash;a small rural town nearly wiped off the map by a devastating tornado in 2007&#x26;mdash;and the South Bronx neighborhood of New York City are showing how residents can come together to weave efforts to reduce global warming pollution into strategies for community development. Cities, states and the federal government should build upon the successes of these efforts by setting mandatory, science-based caps on global warming pollution, adopting strong clean energy policies, and investing in the transition to a low-carbon economy. &#x26;bull; Individual states and the federal government should adopt mandatory, science-based caps on global warming pollution. At minimum, those caps should be consistent with a national goal of reducing emissions by at least 15-20 percent below today&#x26;rsquo;s levels by 2020 and by at least 80 percent below today&#x26;rsquo;s levels by 2050. Revenues from any program that puts a price on global warming pollution should be used to aid in the transition to a clean energy economy and to reduce the cost of emission reductions to consumers. &#x26;bull; Cities, states and the federal government should make energy efficiency improvements and accelerated development of renewable energy the centerpiece of their environmental and economic development policies. Advanced building energy codes; strong energy efficiency standards for buildings, appliances and vehicles; and mandatory targets for renewable power generation and energy efficiency savings are among the policies that can reduce global warming pollution and put the nation on a clean energy path. &#x26;bull; Global warming and fossil fuel dependence should become central considerations in land-use planning and public sector investment decisions. America should increase its investment in public transportation and rail transportation to reduce emissions from transportation. All new public buildings should meet rigorous standards for energy efficiency and the use of clean energy. </description>
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<pubDate>Wed, 18 Jun 2008 09:06:39 -0500</pubDate>
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<title>The Clean Cars Program: How States Are Driving Cuts in Global Warming Pollution</title>
<link>http://www.pennenvironment.org/reports/global-warming/global-warming-reports/the-clean-cars-program-how-states-are-driving-cuts-in-global-warming-pollution</link>
<description>Rising global temperatures, unpredictable weather and alarming scientific predictions have led to increasing public concern about the impacts of global warming on the environment, health and society. But while the Bush administration continues to resist efforts to reduce global warming pollution, many states are taking effective actions to address the threat&#x26;mdash;including the adoption of the &#x26;ldquo;Clean Cars Program,&#x26;rdquo; which sets limits on global warming pollution from cars, light trucks and SUVs. The global warming benefit will be significant. &#x26;bull; The 12 states that have adopted the Clean Cars Program will cut global warming pollution from cars, light trucks and SUVs by 74 million metric tons per year in 2020. &#x26;bull; The cumulative global warming emission reduction from the program between 2009 and 2020 is 392 million metric tons, the equivalent to taking 74 million of today&#x26;rsquo;s cars off the road for an entire year. &#x26;bull; Adoption by six additional states that are considering the policy would increase the total emission reduction to 100 million metric tons per year in 2020 and cumulative reductions to 536 million metric tons. The Clean Cars Program will also reduce gasoline consumption and save money for consumers. &#x26;bull; The standards could reduce gasoline consumption by as much as 8.3 billion gallons per year in 2020&#x26;mdash;as much as is consumed by all the vehicles in Florida in a year. &#x26;bull; Consumers could save up to $25.8 billion annually at the pump in 2020. &#x26;bull; If six more states adopt the Clean Cars Program, gasoline consumption could drop by a total of 11.2 billion gallons in 2020, saving $34.7 billion for consumers at the pump. States&#x26;rsquo; adoption of the Clean Cars Program can reduce global warming pollution, cut energy use, and save money for consumers. The federal government should not interfere with the progress being made by these states and should grant California&#x26;rsquo;s request for a Clean Air Act waiver so that the states can implement the Clean Cars Program. </description>
<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.pennenvironment.org/reports/global-warming/global-warming-reports/the-clean-cars-program-how-states-are-driving-cuts-in-global-warming-pollution</guid>
<pubDate>Mon, 21 May 2007 08:34:51 -0500</pubDate>
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<title>When It Rains, It Pours: Global Warming and the Rising Frequency of Extreme Precipitation in Pennsylvania</title>
<link>http://www.pennenvironment.org/reports/global-warming/global-warming-reports/when-it-rains-it-pours-global-warming-and-the-rising-frequency-of-extreme-precipitation-in-pennsylvania</link>
<description>Scientists expect that global warming will cause a variety of changes to precipitation patterns in the United States. Many areas will receive increased amounts of rain and snow over the course of a year; some areas will receive less. But scientists expect that, all across the country, the rainstorms and snowstorms that do occur will be more intense &#x26;ndash; increasing the risk of flooding and other impacts. In this report, we evaluate trends in the requency of storms with extreme levels of rainfall or snowfall across the contiguous United States over the last 60 years. We analyze daily precipitation records spanning from 1948 through 2006 at more than 3,000 weather stations in 48 states. We then examine patterns in the timing of heavy precipitation relative to the local climate at each weather station. We find that storms with extreme mounts of rain or snowfall are happening more often across most of America, consistent with the predicted impact of global warming. Scientists expect global warming to increase the frequency of heavy precipitation. As the earth warms, temperate regions of North America will face a growing risk of storms with extreme levels of rain or snowfall. Global warming increases the intensity of precipitation in two key ways. First, by increasing the temperature of the land and the oceans, global warming causes water to evaporate faster. Second, by increasing air temperature, global warming enables the atmosphere to hold more water vapor. These factors combine to make clouds richer with moisture, making heavy downpours or snowstorms more likely. The consequences of increasingly intense rainstorms may include flooding, crop damage, pollution of waterways with runoff, erosion, and other environmental and economic damage. During the 20th century, floods caused more property damage and loss of life than any other natural disaster in the United States. An increase in the number of downpours does not necessarily mean more water will be available. Scientists expect that extreme downpours will punctuate longer periods of relative dryness, increasing the risk of drought. In the Southwest, for example, total annual precipitation is projected to decline &#x26;ndash; amplifying the impact of periods of little rainfall between heavy storms.  Even in the rest of the country, where total annual precipitation is expected to increase, more of that precipitation will fall in heavy rainstorms or snowstorms, paradoxically increasing the potential for drought. As temperatures rise, precipitation will become increasingly likely to fall as rain rather than snow, increasing runoff and likely reducing water supplies in areas dependent on snowpack. Weather records show that storms with extreme precipitation have become more frequent over the last 60 years. Consistent with the predicted impacts of global warming, we found that storms with extreme precipitation have increased in frequency by 24 percent across the continental United States since 1948. (According to a statistical analysis of the data, with 95 percent confidence, the increase has been between 22 and 26 percent.) New England and the Mid-Atlantic experienced the largest increase in extreme precipitation frequency. New England and the Mid-Atlantic saw storms with extreme precipitation levels increase in frequency by 61percent and 42 percent, respectively. At the state level, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Vermont, New York and Louisiana all saw extreme recipitation events increase in frequency by more than 50 percent. In the contiguous United States, 40 states experienced a statistically significant trend toward increasingly frequent storms with extreme precipitation. Only one state (Oregon) showed a statistically significant decline in frequency of storms with extreme precipitation. (See Figure ES-1.) See the report appendices on page 5 for a full list of results by region, tate and metropolitan area. Climate divisions covering more than half of the land area of the United States show a statistically significant trend toward more frequent storms with extreme precipitation.   We also looked at the trend in frequency of storms with extreme precipitation within climate divisions, which are boundaries used by climatologists since the 1950s to aggregate weather observations. Figure ES-2 presents these trends, showing that the largest increases occurred across New England, New York, much of the Great Lakes area, the upper Midwest, plus Louisiana, New Mexico, northern Washington and southern California. Climate regions covering more than half of the surface area of the contiguous United States show a statistically significant increase in the frequency of storms with extreme precipitation levels. In contrast, the data show statistically significant decreases in extreme precipitation frequency for climate regions covering only 4 percent of the area of the United States. (Oregon, the northwestern corner of North Dakota, central Arkansas, the southern tip of Lake Michigan, and northern Florida.) These findings are consistent with previous studies of extreme recipitation patterns, both in the United States and across the globe. For example:   Scientists have observed warmer weather, higher atmospheric moisture content, increased formation of storm clouds, and an increase in thunderstorm activity over the contiguous United States in recent decades. In 1999, researchers at the Illinois State Water Survey and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) found that storms with extreme precipitation became more frequent by about 3 percent per decade from 1931 to 1996. Our findings are consistent with this result. In 2004, scientists at NCDC concluded that most of the observed increase in storms with heavy and very heavy precipitation levels since the early 1900s had occurred in the last three decades. In other words, they found that the change in extreme precipitation frequency is unusual and relatively recent. Moreover, NCDC found that extremely heavy storms are increasing in frequency more rapidly than very heavy storms &#x26;ndash; which in turn are increasing in frequency more rapidly than heavy storms. The severity of the trend toward more intense downpours in the future depends upon our emissions of the pollution that drives global warming.   Climate models predict that the trend toward increasingly frequent storms with heavy precipitation will intensify in the future. Some amount of change is inevitable given the global warming emissions humans have already created. However, we still have the ability to prevent the worst-case scenarios. By halting the increase in total U.S. global warming emissions now and reducing emissions by at least 80 percent by mid-century, we can limit the increase in major storm frequency &#x26;mdash; and thus reduce future risks of flooding and other serious consequences of extreme rainstorms. To address global warming, America should limit emissions of global warming pollution, while improving energy efficiency and increasing the use of renewable energy. To protect future generations, the United States should adopt a mandatory cap on global warming pollution that reduces total U.S. emissions by at least 15 to 20 percent by 2020 and by at least 80 percent by 2050. If policymakers choose a cap-and-trade program to achieve this goal, it should include auctioning 100 percent of emission allowances, rather than giving allowances away to polluters. By auctioning allowances, we can reduce the cost of achieving emission reduction goals, making it more likely that America will succeed. The United States should also adopt complementary policies to improve energy efficiency and increase the use of clean, renewable energy. </description>
<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.pennenvironment.org/reports/global-warming/global-warming-reports/when-it-rains-it-pours-global-warming-and-the-rising-frequency-of-extreme-precipitation-in-pennsylvania</guid>
<pubDate>Tue, 04 Dec 2007 12:01:31 -0600</pubDate>
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